Business Forecast Essay -- Business Forecasting Research Essays

melodic phrase ForecastThis Paper examines and compares various promiseing proficiencys use for qualitative and quantitative business forebode and their use in Firstlogic Inc., to forecast the demand under conditions of uncertainty. Time series and Delphi forecast methods are considered for this research to evaluate their ability to make effective decisions regarding the future.Business ForecastingBusiness forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the knowledge gained to project future business conditions so that decisions cease be made today that will aid in the achievement of ceremonious goals. Forecasting plays a crucial role in todays uncertain world-wide marketplace. Forecasting is traditionally either qualitative or quantitative, with each crack specific advantages and disadvantages.Qualitative and Quantitative Forecasting Techniques Forecasting can be classified into qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative techniques are subjective or judgmental and are based on estimates and opinions. The Delphi technique, a common form of qualitative forecasting, allows experts to create an effective forecast under conditions of extreme uncertainty. Time?s series forecasting, a quantitative technique, uses a statistical analysis of by former(prenominal) sales in order to effectively predict future outcomes, only can be limited under conditions of uncertainty (Chase, 2003, p.364). Business forecasting can be used in a wide var. of contexts, and by a wide variety of businesses. For example, effective forecasting can determine sales based on attendance at a trade show, or the customer demand for products and services (Business and Economic Forecasting, p.1). 1 of the most important assumptions of business forecasters is that the past acts as an important get out for the future. It is important to note that forecasters essential consider a number of parvenue information, including rapidly changing econ omic conditions and globalization, when creating business forecasts based on past sales.Globalization and economic slowdown has made businesses subject to a spacious deal of uncertainty. In this time of rapid change, economies worldwide change rapidly, stark naked markets open up and old ones change, and demand for products is frequently uncertain. As such, businesses moldiness be flexible and adaptable in the types of methods that they use... ...forecasts. Given the high class of uncertainty in todays marketplace, qualitative forecasting techniques like the Delphi technique whitethorn help Firstlogic to better-forecast future sales.ConclusionIn conclusion, business forecasting methods must be used in order to fit current conditions of uncertainty. Delphi technique and time series forecasting both are valuable forecasting tools when used in the right circumstance. The Delphi technique is useful for short-term forecasts therefore, it is often a more valuable tool for business fo recasting during conditions of uncertainty.ReferencesUniversity of Phoenix(Ed.).(2003) trading trading operations management for competitive advantageUniversity of Phoenix custom edition e-text. New York McGraw-Hill. Retrieved February 01, 2005, from university of phoenix, Resource, MGT554- operations management website https//mycampus.phoenix.edu/secure/resource/resource.aspBusiness and Economic Forecasting. Retrieved February 24, 2005, from http//www.sbeusers.csuhayward.edu/acassuto/econ3551/summary/chapter6.htmNamvar, move . (2000). Economic Forecasting. Retrieved February 24, 2005, from http//gbr.pepperdine.edu/001/forecast.html